INTRODUCTION
- STUDY SCOPE & INFORMATION
SOURCES USED
Since this
study was last conducted in 1993, the smoking cessation market has experienced
dramatic change. Most notably, smokers
now have a greater variety of pharmacological options available to them and far
easier access to treatment than they did in 1993. New products and delivery methods have been
introduced offering advantages over those already on the market. Also, several key products attained FDA
approval for conversion from Rx (only by prescription) to over-the-counter
status (OTC), thus making them easier to obtain.
Within the
nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) category; in 1996, both the nicotine patch
and nicotine gum became available on an OTC basis. The nicotine nasal spray attained FDA approval in 1997 and the
nicotine inhaler was approved in 1998.
Both of these products are available on a prescription only basis.
In 1997,
Zyban became the first FDA-approved non-nicotine pharmacotherapy for the
treatment of tobacco dependence, offering smokers an alternative to nicotine
for the first time since pharmacological treatments became available for
smoking cessation. This product was
already being marketed under the brand Wellbutrin, used in the treatment of
depression. It was serendipitously
discovered to benefit smokers and was released under a different brand for
smoking cessation, to minimize confusion and the possibility of error.
On the
whole, both the commercial and non-profit smoking cessation organizations have
undergone some contraction, in part due to the advancements in
pharmacotherapeutic treatments. This
decline has also been attributed to the coalescing of the smoking population
into a more homogeneous hard core segment, with distinct socioeconomic
characteristics, and lacking the inclination or motivational resources to
pursue cessation. This is in contrast
to the past, when smokers tended to be more receptive to the public health
warnings regarding the dangers of smoking.
Because of the changes that have taken place since 1993, this report has been revamped considerably. Some chapters have been eliminated because the components of the smoking cessation market which they addressed are no longer as pertinent. For instance, retail smoking cessation aids (i.e. Cigarrest kit, cigarette filters, hypnosis seminars, etc.) which had greater prominence at a time when few legitimate alternatives were available, have been largely displaced by alternatives that have greater acceptance within the traditional medical establishment.
On the other hand, chapters have been added to address major new developments since 1993. These include: the advent of Zyban; the Rx to OTC conversions of Nicorette, Nicoderm, and Nicotrol; and the emergence of the Internet as an almost endless source of information and guidance regarding smoking cessation, as well as a support forum for smokers seeking to quit.
A major
source of public information about any industry or market analyzed by
Marketdata is the U.S. Government--the most prolific producer of business
information in the world. The Standard
Industrial Classification (SIC)
System was created to allow for the uniform collection and analysis of
economic, marketing and financial statistics about all sectors of the U.S. economy. A 4-digit numerical code is
assigned to each industry,
with broader groups of industries classified under 2 and 3-digit codes as
well. Recently, the SIC system has been
revamped to include many small markets and industries for which data was not
collected separately. Now, the codes
are known as NAICS codes (for North
American Industrial Classification System).
These NAICS codes were used for the first time with the just-released
1997 Census of Service Industries.
The SIC
system works so well that the private sector has also embraced it.
Mail list houses use it, as well as credit bureaus and financial directory
publishers such as Standard & Poors, Dun & Bradstreet, TRW, Robert
Morris Associates, etc.
Unfortunately,
however, there is still no single SIC or NAICS code or "industry"
classification that tracks the revenues and operations of smoking cessation
products and service providers via a government census or annual survey.
Instead, the various segments of this market are classified within broader
industry groups. In addition, there is no national, umbrella trade association
or group that represents commercial smoking cessation providers. Rather, there are individual
societies and associations primarily covering healthcare and related
professionals (physicians, pharmacists, etc.).
Consequently,
Marketdata has divided the stop-smoking market into the following major market
segments:
1) Nicotine chewing gum (OTC)
2) Nicotine patches (Rx, OTC, generic)
3) Zyban and other pharmacological agents
(e.g., clonidine, nortriptyline)
continued…
4) Commercial smoking cessation programs: (SIC
8399--Miscellaneous
Social Services, now NAICS code 8132,
8133))
5)
Nonprofit & Government health care associations’ stop-smoking
clinics, plans, materials, events
6) Physician and pharmacist counseling...
Marketdata
believes that it is dangerous to rely on just one information source, and therefore uses a comprehensive variety of sources in all its reports.
The following sources were used, and provided a major portion of the total
information collected...
Government
Reports & Agencies
Reports
& Publications
* Healthy
People 2000 – National Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Objectives
* Healthy
People 2010
* Preventing
Tobacco Use Among Young People
* Reducing
Tobacco Use - 2000 Surgeon General’s report
* Review
& Evaluation of Smoking Cessation Methods: The United States and Canada,
1978-1985, U.S. Dept. of Health
and Human Services, Public Health Service,
National Institute of Health
* Smoking
Cessation Practice Guideline – AHCPR - 1996
* The
Health Benefits of Smoking Cessation - 1990 Surgeon General’s report
* Treating
Tobacco Use & Dependence, Clinical Practice Guideline - 2000
* U.S.
Statistical Abstract - 1999
Government
Agencies
* American
Council on Science & Health
* Centers
for Disease Control (CDC)
* Dept. of
Health & Human Services, Centers For Disease Control
*
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
* Federal
Trade Commission
* Food
& Drug Administration
* National
Cancer Institute
* National
Center For Health Statistics
* National
Institutes of Health (NIH)
* Office
on Smoking and Health.
Government
Agencies (continued):
* OSHA
* Public
Health Service
* U.S.
Food & Drug Administration
* U.S.
National Institute on Drug Abuse
* About.com
* Elan Pharmaceuticals
* HealthCentral.com
* Hoovers
* Glaxo Wellcome
* Market Guide
* Mayo
Clinic
* McNeil
Consumer Products Company
*
Mediconsult.com
* Medscape
* Novartis
* Perrigo
Company
*
Pharmacia Corporation
* Sano
Corporation
*
SmithKline Beecham
* STAT
(Stop Teenage Addiction to Tobacco)
* Yahoo
Finance
Trade And
Consumer Associations & Their Staffs
* Action
on Smoking or Health (ASH)
* American
Cancer Society
* American
Heart Association
* American
Medical Association
* American
Lung Association
*
Advertising Research Foundation
*
Association of National Advertisers
* Citizens
Against Tobacco Smoke (CATS)
*
Coalition on Smoking & Health
*
Foundation For a Smoke Free America
*
Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association
* Smoking
Policy Institute
* The Ad
Council
* The
Foundation for Innovation in Nicotine Dependence (FIND)
* The
Tobacco Institute
Original
Marketdata Research
*
"Primary" research--in-depth telephone surveys/interviews of the
industry leaders and
participants, analysts and consultants
within each market segment.
*
Interviews of trade association and trade journal staff personnel and editors,
industry
analysts, affiliated research companies.
Company Annual Reports, 10K
Financial Statements, Catalogs & Product Literature
Trade
Journals/Magazines/Periodicals- Their Editorial Staffs & Special
Market
Surveys
* Adweek
*
Advertising Age
* American
Druggist
* American
Journal of Public Health
* Boston
Globe
* Business
Week
*
Christian Science Monitor
* Drug
Store News
* Drug
Topics
* Drug
& Cosmetic Industry
* Employee
Assistance
* Industry
Week
* Journal
of the American Pharmaceutical Association
* Medical
Economics
* Medical
Marketing & Media
* Newsweek
* Oncology
*
Pharmaceutical Executive
*
Philadelphia Inquirer
*
Publishers Weekly
* Time
* Triangle
Business Journal
* USA
Today
* U.S.
News & World Report
* The New
York Times
* The Wall
Street Journal
* The
Washington Post
Computerized
Business Databases
* Dialog
*
ABI/INFORM
* Dow
Jones Interactive
Consulting
& Research Firms
*
Corporate Health Policies Group
* H.C.
Wainwright & Co.
* IMS
Health
* Mehta
& Isaly Pharmaceutical Research
* The
Gallup Organization
Financial
& Other Directories
* Leading
National Advertisers/Arbitron (Surveys of Media & Markets)
* Medical
& Healthcare Marketplace Guide, Dorland Biomedical
Other
Sources
* Mail
list houses: American Business Lists Inc.
* National
Yellow Pages directories, National Marketing Center, and
Yellow Pages Publishing Association
Forecasting Mthodology…
Forecasting
the future direction of a market is never an exact science. However, past Marketdata projections have generally
proven to be very accurate because of the comprehensive nature of our research.
In
formulating all forecasts, we consider the following factors......
*
Results/opinions obtained via telephone interviews with key end-users and
industry
experts and competitors.
* The
opinions of other analysts who track the market (trade journal editors,
brokerage
firm analysts, other research firms).
*
Recent/emerging social and demographic trends & attitudes.
* New
technologies that will broaden the application and use of a product or service,
or
render it obsolete.
*
Historical growth rate of the market-short and long-term.
Continued:
* The size
of the market, and how difficult it will be to maintain past growth rates off a
larger sales base.
* The
overall economic situation (recession or expansion period?)
*
Federal/state/local Government regulatory actions and trends.
* Supply
(shortage/oversupply) of product or service--demand.
*
Competition-how intense it is in a particular market, and how likely it is to
depress
prices/sales/revenues.
* The
strength of demand from critical end-user sectors.
Only by
considering all these factors can one develop a truly "consensus" view of where a market is headed, which
proves time and again to be the most accurate forecasting barometer. Marketdata
strives to obtain the best quality, most pertinent and up-to-date information
only, from the widest possible array of sources, which track the market from differing
standpoints.
Purchasers
of this report are encouraged to contact Marketdata Enterprises, Inc. with any
corrections, omissions, additions, new sources of information about the market,
etc., which we will incorporate into future reprintings and updates of the
study.